RAFIZI YANG TIDAK FAHAM EKONOMI

YB Rafizi sebelum menuduh orang lain tidak faham ekonomi elok YB tanya diri sendiri dulu sama ada YB faham dengan mendalam tentang ekonomi?

Kadar inflasi Februari 2017 yang dicatatkan pada 4.5% adalah kadar inflasi bulanan bukannya tahunan seperti YB bandingkan dengan kadar inflasi tahunan semasa Malaysia dilanda krisis ekonomi pada tahun 1998. Di sini YB sudah mengelirukan orang ramai seolah-olah kadar inflasi Februari 2017 adalah inflasi tahun 2017 keseluruhan.

Blog Rafizi Ramli

Di dalam sejarah ekonomi Malaysia terbukti banyak kali kadar inflasi melonjak di luar kegawatan ekonomi. Di dalam keadaan ekonomi berkembang dengan pesat juga berlaku lonjakan kadar inflasi. Ini kerana apabila ekonomi berkembang pesat, pengunaan swasta (private consumption) meningkat dan ini menyebabkan kadar inflasi juga meningkat:

Source: Bank Negara Monthly Stats Bulletin

Begitu juga sebaliknya semasa ekonomi gawat pada tahun 1985 dan 1986, kadar inflasi hanya dicatatkan pada 0.3% dan 0.7% masing-masing. Apabila ekonomi merosot kebiasaannya kadar inflasi akan turun kesan daripada penggunaan swasta (private consumption) yang menurun. 

Pada tahun 1998 kadar inflasi meningkat kerana penyusutan Ringgit yang ketara meningkatkan harga makanan yang diimport:

Source: Bank Negara 1998 Annual Report

Pada tahun 2008 pula ekonomi Malaysia berkembang pada kadar 4.8% dan bukannya dalam keadaan gawat seperti yang YB Rafizi nyatakan. Ekonomi Malaysia mengalami kegawatan pada tahun 2009 iaitu penguncupan kadar pertumbuhan sebanyak 1.5% dan kadar inflasi pada tahun 2009 adalah 0.6%.

Pertumbuhan KDNK dan Penggunaan Swasta: BNM

Kadar inflasi meningkat pada tahun 2008 kerana harga minyak mentah dunia yang meningkat mendadak sehingga USD140 setong yang menyebabkan kerajaan terpaksa menaikkan harga petrol daripada RM1.92 kepada RM2.70 dan harga diesel dari RM1.58 kepada RM2.58:

Bank Negara Annual Report 2008

YB mengemukakan fakta yang salah dan teori ekonomi yang salah. Jadi tak perlu mengatakan orang lain tak faham ekonomi.

Saya yakin Menteri Kewangan ke-2 tahu bagaimana indeks harga pengguna (IHP) dikira temasuklah tahun asas 2010 (2010 = 100). Tak perlulah YB ajar beliau tentang perkara asas seperti ini. YB yang perlu belajar dengan lebih lanjut tentang bagaimana untuk menggunakan fakta yang betul dan juga teori ekonomi yang betul.

Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) pada Februari 2017 adalah 119.7. Dengan 2010 sebagai tahun asas, ini bermakna harga barangan dan perkhidmatan pengguna meningkat 19.7% sejak tahun 2010.

Tuduhan bahawa gaji pekerja di Malaysia tidak meningkat adalah tidak tepat sama sekali. Purata gaji pekerja di Malaysia meningkat setiap tahun seperti dilaporkan Laporan Penyiasatan Gaji dan Upah oleh Jabatan Perangkaan Negara:

Laporan Penyiasatan Gaji dan Upah: Jabatan Perangkaan Negara

Setelah diindeks purata gaji pekerja di Malaysia iaitu RM1,772 pada tahun 2010 sebagai tahun asas, gaji pekerja di Malaysia pada tahun 2015 adalah RM2,312 dengan indeks pada 130.7. 

Ini bermakna sejak tahun 2010 sehingga 2015 purata gaji pekerja di Malaysia meningkat sejumlah 30% lebih tinggi daripada kadar inflasi sebanyak 20%. Laporan Penyiasatan Gaji dan Upah 2016 akan diterbitkan oleh Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia pada bulan Mei 2017.

Adakah YB Rafizi tidak mahu percaya dengan angka purata gaji dan upah yang dikeluarkan oleh Jabatan Perangkaan yang sama yang mengeluarkan laporan Indeks Harga Pengguna? Adakah YB hanya akan percaya laporan “negatif” tetapi tidak mahu mempercayai laporan “positif” daripada jabatan yang sama?

Laporan Penyiasatan Gaji dan Upah: Jabatan Perangkaan Negara

Lebih baik YB luangkan masa mengkaji tentang inflasi, gaji, ekonomi dengan lebih mendalam sebelum menuduh orang lain tidak faham ekonomi. Sebelum nak sekolahkan menteri, sekolahkan diri sendiri dahulu. 

Rujukan:

1. Indeks Harga Pengguna Februari 2017: Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia

2. KENYATAAN MENTERI MENGENAI INFLASI MEMANDANG RENDAH MASALAH HARGA BARANG NAIK: Facebook Rafizi Ramli

3. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Malaysia dan Kadar Inflasi: Bank Negara Monthly Statistical Bulletin

4. Laporan Penyiasatan Gaji dan Upah Malaysia: Jabatan Perangkaan Negara

PEMANDU UBER, GRAB KENA BAYAR CUKAI PENDAPATAN

Astro Awani

Tak faham apa yang nak diributkan tentang berita pemandu Uber dan Grab kena bayar cukai pendapatan. Secara asasnya segala jenis pendapatan sama ada daripada perniagaan, pekerjaan bergaji, dividen, faedah, diskaun, sewaan, royalti, pencen, anuiti diwajibkan dikenakan cukai pendapatan sekiranya melebihi jumlah tertentu.

Mereka yang berpendapatan RM34,000 ke atas perlu mendaftar (membuka) fail cukai pendapatan dengan Lembaga Hasil Dalam Negeri:

Lembaga Hasil Dalam Negeri

Itupun belum kena bayar lagi cukai pendapatan. Hanya perlu daftar fail cukai pendapatan 

untuk semakan.

Untuk tahun taksiran 2016, sekiranya pendapatan (gaji + segala pendapatan yang lain termasuk memandu Uber, Grab) anda melebihi RM40,449.44 setahun atau RM3,370.80 sebulan baru anda diwajibkan membayar cukai pendapatan setelah menolak pelepasan cukai individu yang diberikan oleh kerajaan. Sekiranya anda meraih pendapatan kurang daripada RM40,449.44 setahun maka anda tidak perlu membayar cukai pendapatan.

Ini tidak tertakluk kepada pemandu Uber dan Grab sahaja, sesiapa yang mempunyai pendapatan perniagaan lain seperti daripada platform atas talian contohnya IG shop, online business, paid review, tweet berbayar dan sebagainya perlu mendaftar fail cukai pendapatan sekiranya pendapatan mereka melebihi paras yang saya sebut di atas.

Untuk bacaan lanjut dan lengkap tentang cukai pendapatan sila rujuk di RinggitPlus.

Saya jumpa banyak yang bising, menghentam kerajaan sebagai kehabisan duit, mencekik darah dan sebagainya kerana mewajibkan pemandu Uber dan Grab membayar cukai pendapatan:

Saya nak bersangka baik dan menganggap mereka ini semua tak faham dan belum pernah membayar cukai pendapatan kepada kerajaan.

Ini bukannya bentuk cukai yang baru. Cukai pendapatan dinamakan cukai pendapatan sebab ianya dikenakan ke atas segala jenis pendapatan dan bukan semata-mnata gaji tetap. Mereka yang mempunyai perniagaan di atas nama individu (enterprise) juga perlu membayar cukai pendapatan sekiranya pendapatan mereka melebihi threshold yang saya terangkan.

Negara-negara lain seperti US, UK, Australia, Canada dan Singapore juga mencukai pemandu Uber dan Grab (Singapore) di bawah kategori pendapatan bekerja sendiri (self-employment income).

Semak dulu sebelum nak hentam kerajaan. Bukannya susah nak Google. 

Bercuti Boleh, Bayar PTPTN Tak Nak?

Ada yang mampu merancang percutian ke luar negara yang menelan kos beribu-ribu tapi tak boleh bayar PTPTN setiap bulan yang tak sampai beribu-ribu ringgit. 

Ada yang merancang nak beli kereta harga puluhan ribu dengan bayaran ansuran bulanan pinjaman beratus-ratus ringgit tetapi tidak boleh bayar PTPTN dengan konsisten.

Sebenarnya sebahagian besar mereka yang tak bayar PTPTN bukannya tak mampu nak bayar tetapi mereka memang tidak ada niat nak bayar semula pinjaman yang diberi PTPTN.

Ini dibuktikan dengan data yang saya perolehi daripada Laporan Tahunan PTPTN bahawa sejak PTPTN menyenaraihitamkan (blacklist) peminjam tegar yang liat untuk membayar semula daripada keluar negara melalui imigresen, PTPTN berjaya mengutip RM345 juta daripada kumpulan ini. Pada tahun 2015, peminjam yang disenaraihitamkan membayar RM98.57 juta pinjaman mereka:

Prestasi Kutipan Bayaran Balik Pinjaman Senarai Hitam Imigresen: PTPTN

Selepas PTPTN menyenaraikan penghutang tegar yang tidak membuat bayaran di dalam CCRIS dengan kerjasama Bank Negara, seramai 27,271 peminjam membuat bayaran balik berjumlah RM112.52 juta:

Sistem Maklumat Kredit Berpusat (CCRIS): PTPTN

Jika PTPTN tidak mengambil inisiatif menyenaraihitamkan peminjam tegar dengan imigresen dan menyenaraikan nama peminjam tegar dalam CCRIS adakah mereka yang tiba-tiba boleh membayar semula hutang mereka kepada PTPTN akan melakukan sedemikian?

Tanggungjawab sendiri untuk membayar pinjaman pendidikan sendiri yang dimohon sendiri dengan kerelaan sendiri tanpa dipaksa oleh mana-mana pihak.

Satu Ringgit tidak dibayar semula kepada PTPTN, Satu Ringgit kurang pinjaman untuk bakal pelajar, adik-adik dan anak-anak kita untuk mendapat pembiayaan pelajaran di masa hadapan.

Masih ada 662,983 peminjam yang degil dan liat untuk membayar semula pinjaman PTPTN mereka. Jika ada masalah masih tidak mendapat pekerjaan boleh berunding dengan PTPTN untuk diberi penangguhan tetapi janganlah mengabaikan tanggungjawab sebagai peminjam.

Mungkin banyak yang tak tahu fakta ini bahawa kerajaan menjamin RM32.5 billion hutang PTPTN kepada bank-bank swasta. PTPTN meminjam RM32.5 billion wang daripada bank-bank komersil untuk meminjamkan wang kepada pelajar-pelajar. RM32.5 billion ini juga menyumbang kepada hutang yang dijamin kerajaan persekutuan atau contingent liabilities seperti tercatat di dalam Penyata Kewangan Kerajaan Persekutuan 2015:

Penyata Kewangan Kerajaan Persekutuan 2015: ANM

Hutang kerajaan berjumlah RM648 billion yang tidak membebankan secara langsung bising, hutang luar negara berjumlah RM908 billion yang langsung tidak ada kena mengena dengan rakyat kebanyakan pun bising juga. Bila hutang peribadi macam PTPTN, tak boleh nak bayar.

Kalau pun benci kepada kerajaan jangan aniaya adik-adik dan anak-anak kita yang perlukan pembiayaan pelajaran. 

Rujukan:

1. Laporan Tahunan PTPTN 2015

2. Penyata Kewangan Kerajaan Persekutuan 2015 

Liew Chin Tong, Bearer of Fake News

I once thought Liew Chin Tong was the smart one in DAP. He won the most votes in the DAP CEC election in 2013 surpassing DAP giants (or rather dinosaurs) like Karpal Singh, Lim Kit Sian and even Lim Guan Eng. I thought he could break Lim's dynasty in DAP.

Turns out he's exactly the same like those two Lims.

Liew Chin Tong was so eager to attack the EPU Minister Datuk Seri Abdul Rahman Dahlan in order to please Lim Kit Siang and Lim Guan Eng that he dared to spread lies, unproven facts, and misleading statement. 

He wrote:

"THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY IS VERY GOOD FOR THE TOP 1% OF THE POPULATION, AS GOVERNMENT POLICIES ARE GENERALLY IN FAVOUR OF THE SUPER RICH BUT SQUEEZES THE MIDDLE CLASS AND THOSE BELOW."

This is of course a blatant lie, misleading and factually incorrect statement. 

From 2009 to 2014, growth of median income of the bottom 40 (B40) households was the fastest compared to to the middle 40 (M40) and the top 20 (T20) households. B40 median income growth rate was 12.8%, significantly faster than income growth of the T20 (7.7%) and the M40 (9.3%) during the same period. B40 income growth was also faster than the national household (10.1%).

Elevating B40 Households Towards a Middle Class Society: EPU

Overall, income inequality narrowed as indicated by the reduction in Gini coefficient from 0.441 in 2009 to 0.401 in 2014. These data are published by the Department of Statistics Malaysia in the Household Income Survey 2014.

To say that our economy hasn't benefited the those lower income and poor is a blatant lie. There have been so many programs and assistance undertook by the government to help raise B40 household income and it's been proven that their income has increased over the past few years since the current prime minister took over the helm of our country's administration in 2009.

Liew Chin Tong didn't stop there. He further mentioned that the youth unemployment issue raised by Bank Negara Malaysia in its annual report for 2016. He also asked whether this matter raised by Bank Negara is a form of economic sabotage too? This if of course a stupid question.

Liew Chin Tong's Blog

First of all, it's indisputable that youth unemployment in Malaysia is a real structural issue that needs to be addressed by the government as the policymakers. It has been true since decades when youth unemployment rate in Malaysia reached as high as 11.6% in 1993 when Malaysia's economy grew rapidly at average growth rate of 9% every year.

Malaysia Youth Unemployment Rate; ILO, World Bank

Liew Chin Tong failed to mention that BNM specifically wrote that youth unemployment issue is a global problem and youth in Malaysia have not been spared from the global trends. Regionally other countries have been facing the same problem and in fact Singapore has higher youth unemployment rate (10.7%) than Malaysia.

Youth Unemployment in Malaysia: BNM

On the graduate employability, again BNM mentioned that it is a rising concern for Malaysia and other countries in this region. The trend of youth with tertiary education which make up a relatively larger share of unemployed youth does not appear to be unique to Malaysia. BNM also stated that these trends are likely to be related to the nature of global supply chains and ensuing patterns of job creation in the emerging economies, vis-à-vis the advanced economies.

Youth Unemployment in Malaysia: BNM

BNM report is not an economic sabotage because unlike opposition leaders half-baked analysis and statements, BNM did research to identify the root cause of a problem and recommend a policy for the government to address the problem.

It's easy to cherrypick and  and even easier to highlight the negative part of the report by BNM. It's certainly hard for the opposition leaders to also highlight the fact that youth unemployment and graduate employability are a global trend and not unique to Malaysia and probably even harder for them to mention that Singapore has higher youth unemployment rate than Malaysia.

YB Liew Chin Tong, please do thorough research about our nation's economy before you spread lies to score political points. I thought you were different than the rest in your party but I was dead wrong. I forgot that birds of a same feather, flock together.

Reference:

1. EPU Strategy Paper: Elevating B40 Households Towards a Middle-Class Society: http://epu.gov.my/sites/default/files/Strategy%20Paper%2002.pdf

2. Bank Negara Malaysia: Youth Unemployment in Malaysia: Developments and Policy Considerations: http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/ar/en/2016/cp04_003_box.pdf

3. World Bank, ILO: Malaysia's Youth Unemployment Rate: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS?locations=MY

SingDollar vs Ringgit Malaysia

Last couple of weeks I received a Whatsapp message regarding Singapore Dollar (SGD) performance against our own Ringgit Malaysia (MYR).

Of course it came with demeaning comment such as sliding down the drain and the sender implied that Ringgit "underperformance" against SGD was because of economic and financial mismanagement by the government.

The fact that SGD has been appreciating against Ringgit since 1973 is an indisputable one but why it's been happening was always misunderstood by many people.

SGD and Ringgit performances are popularly viewed as a barometer of economic and financial management of both countries by their respective governments.

Some people use this fact as a proof that the Malaysian government has been mismanaging the economy, full of corruption and what not.

The problem with that notion is, it's not an apple to apple comparison because Singapore conducts its monetary policy by managing its currency movement while Malaysia conducts its monetary policy by targeting short term interest rate i.e. overnight policy rate (OPR) by buying and selling Ringgit via BNM bills in the interbank money market.

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore's central bank (or sort of), manages exchange rates movement as its main tool to promote price stability (stable inflation rate) as a sound basis for Singapore's sustainable economic growth:

Singapore's Exchange Rate-Based Monetary Policy: MAS

SGD movements are determined by MAS. If SGD appreciates or depreciates against other currencies, it's because MAS allows it not because Singapore's government is managing the economy better than its Malaysia's counterpart per se.

As explained by the excerpt above, 

"Singapore dollar is managed against a basket of currencies of our major trading partners and competitors. The various currencies are assigned weights in accordance with the importance of the country to Singapore’s trading relations with the rest of the world. The composition of the basket is revised periodically to take into account changes in trade patterns."

Malaysia is one of Singapore's major trading partners and competitors. Malaysia is Singapore's third largest export destination after China and Hong Kong exporting goods worth US$37.8 billion or 10.9% of its total exports in 2015 and most importantly Malaysia is Singapore's third largest import source after China and United States.

Singapore has to import almost everything for consumption. Food, fuel, water and many other things are imported from overseas including (and especially from) Malaysia. It's on their best interest to make sure SGD keeps appreciating against Ringgit and other currencies to keep the cost of importing goods in check.

SGD/MYR

SGD/USD

SGD/EUR

SGD/CNY

SGD has been appreciating against Ringgit, US Dollar and Euro since more than 20 years ago while Chinese Yuan keeps its value against SGD because China's central bank, People's Bank of China also managed its currency using managed-float regime like MAS.

MAS has also been explicit about its stance on SGD movement. In every monetary policy statement MAS has been known to mention that it would maintain the policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band. S$NEER is Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate which is an index of Singapore Dollar against a basket of its major trading partners' currencies including Malaysian Ringgit (MYR):

MAS Monetary Policy Statement

There's no need for us to feel inferior just because our Ringgit has been depreciating against Singapore Dollar since we opted out from the currency union agreement with Singapore and Brunei.

There's certainly no need for us to look down upon ourselves and make fun of our policymakers because there's nothing rotten about our country's "financial" management. 

It's just that it's because the different approach taken by two monetary policymakers (Bank Negara and MAS) from different countries. 

The approach taken by MAS works for Singapore while the approach taken by BNM works for Malaysia.

We could not adopt MAS' approach by making sure Ringgit to keep appreciating because it would destroy our own economy. Exporters would feel the pinch, factories would be closed down, workers would lose jobs and many more.

Furthermore, controlling currency movement while keeping the capital flows freely would mean that we will need to surrender or give up our monetary independence to the other central banks like Singapore:

Singapore's Exchange Rate-Based Monetary Policy: MAS

Pegging Ringgit or fixing Ringgit has its own consequences. Whenever the foreign central bank (of the currency we pegged to) raises its domestic interest rate, we have to raise our interest rate too. That means higher interest rates on our mortgage and personal loan i.e. higher monthly installment.

That's exactly why the gulf countries and Hong Kong which pegged their currencies to US Dollar have to hike their domestic interest rates right after the Federal Reserve hiked theirs last week:

Four Central Banks Hike Rates - The Star

Hong Kong Central Bank Raises Rates Interest Rates After Fed Move - The Star

Had BNM pegged or fixed Ringgit (to USD especially) we would have seen a higher monthly repayment for our mortgage starting this month.

I hope my writing shed some light on why Ringgit has been depreciating against Singapore Dollar (actually it's the latter who keeps appreciating against the former because of the latter's central bank's policy) and why pegging or fixing our Ringgit is not the way to go for our country.

Again, don't feel down, humiliated or inferior just because our Ringgit depreciates. Count it as a blessing rather than a curse. Think it as an automatic stabilizer or cushion for our economy that had saved us from losing our jobs.

SGD keeps appreciating because its central bank's policy that fits their small and open economy, not because they are better than us or our economic policies or economic management are worse than theirs.