Monday 26 December 2016

BANTUAN RASUAH 1MALAYSIA - TUN MAHATHIR

"BR1M sebagai umpan untuk raih sokongan", begitulah hinanya golongan berpendapatan rendah dan menengah di bawah RM4,000 sebulan di kaca mata bekas Perdana Menteri Malaysia, Tun Mahathir.

Di dalam sebuah program yang dinamakan Program Bicara Rakyat yang diadakan di Alor Star semalam, Tun mengkritik Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) sebagai program yang diperkenalkan Najib Razak untuk meraih undi demi mencapai kemenangan di dalam pilihanraya yang akan datang. [1]

Ini bukanlah kali pertama Tun menyebut BR1M sebagai rasuah, umpan dan dedak kerana sebelum-sebelum ini pun Tun sudah banyak kali menyebut perkara yang sama di dalam blog dan siri ceramah beliau.

Tun terlalu terdesak untuk menyerang kerajaan sekarang sehingga menyatakan bahawa BR1M merupakan suatu kesalahan rasuah yang menyalahi undang-undang dan agama.

Sempat juga Tun memuji diri sendiri dengan mengatakan bahawa di bawah pentadbiran beliau dahulu tiada wang tunai diberikan kepada rakyat, tetapi kononnya kerajaan memberikan sistem jalanraya yang baik, peruntukan untuk sekolah yang mencukupi, biasiswa untuk pelajar dan sebagainya.

Terdapat juga tuduhan oleh Tun seperti ubat-ubatan di hospital kerajaan yang kononnya kini tidak lagi percuma dan perlu dibayar oleh rakyat sekiranya mereka mendapatkan khidmat rawatan di klinik dan hospital kerajaan.

BR1M diperkenalkan pada tahun 2012 dengan bayaran RM500 kepada isi rumah berpendapatan kurang daripada RM3,000 sebulan.

BR1M kemudiannya diluaskan kepada isi rumah berpendapatan di bawah RM4,000 pada 2014 untuk membantu golongan berpendapatan menengah. [2]

Di bawah adalah carta jumlah BR1M yang diagihkan dan bilangan penerima BR1M sejak 2012: 


Jumlah BR1M yang Diagihkan dan Bilangan Penerima 2012 - 2015, Perbendaharaan Malaysia

Setakat 2015, 7.4 juta isi rumah dan individu bujang menerima manfaat daripada bayaran BR1M yang melibatkan pindahan tunai berjumlah lebih RM5 billion bagi tahun 2015.

Tujuan utama BR1M diperkenalkan adalah untuk meringankan beban golongan berpendapatan di bawah RM3,000 sebulan selepas program rasionalisasi subsidi yang dijalankan kerajaan.

Sebelum BR1M diperkenalkan, kerajaan memberi subsidi kepada rakyat dalam bentuk subsidi pukal atau subsidi universal dalam bentuk barangan contohnya subsidi bahan api petrol dan diesel.

Subsidi seperti ini adalah subsidi yang regresif iaitu semakin tinggi pendapatan sesuatu isi rumah, semakin tinggi subsidi dinikmati oleh mereka.

Contohnya golongan berpendapatan tinggi yang memiliki kereta mewah, berkuasa tinggi mengisi petrol bersubsidi lebih banyak daripada golongan berpendapatan sederhana dan rendah yang hanya membawa kereta buatan tempatan, motorsikal dan tidak mempunyai kenderaan sama sekali.

Sebab itulah subsidi pukal seperti subsidi petrol sebelum ini bersifat regresif.

Bank Negara sendiri pernah mengeluarkan rencana bagaimana subsidi petrol lebih menguntungkan golongan berpendapatan tinggi daripada golongan yang berpendapatan sederhana dan rendah. [3]

Bahagian Subsidi Api Mengikut Kumpulan Pendapatan

Rencana yang dikeluarkan Bank Negara menyatakan bahawa isi rumah berpendapatan 20% terbawah (RM1,300 sebulan) hanya menikmati 4% bahagian subsidi bahan api manakala isi rumah berpendapatan 20% teratas (RM12,150 sebulan) menikmati 42% daripada bahagian subsidi petrol dan diesel.

Jika setiap tahun kerajaan memperuntukkan RM10 billion subsidi bahan api, hanya RM400 juta dinikmati golongan termiskin di dalam negara, tetapi RM4.2 billion dinikmati golongan terkaya dalam negara.

Adakah ini adil pada pandangan anda?

Oleh sebab itulah kerajaan memperkenalkan BR1M dan mengurangkan subsidi pukal secara berperingkat supaya pengagihan hasil negara itu lebih adil dan dinikmati mereka yang betul-betul memerlukan.

Kos untuk membiayai subsidi bahan api juga sangat tinggi setiap tahun berbanding kos membiayai BR1M.

Menurut Penyata Kewangan Kerajaan Persekutuan Tahunan, kos subsidi bahan api setiap tahun sejak 2010 adalah:-

2010: RM9.6 billion
2011: RM20.4 billion
2012: RM27.9 billion
2013: RM27.3 billion
2014: RM23.5 billon [4]

Manakala kos untuk membiayai BR1M tidak sampai separuh daripada perbelanjaan untuk subsidi bahan api iaitu hanya RM5.9 billion tahun ini (2016). [5]

BR1M juga mendapat pengiktirafan World Bank sebagai program pindahan tunai yang berjaya sampai kepada 90% golongan yang memerlukan dan juga diiktiraf sebagai sangat progresif dan bukannya regresif seperti subsidi petrol dan diesel berbentuk pukal. [6]



Di dalam laporan yang sama World Bank menyatakan bahawa BR1M merupakan penyumbang kepada penurunan kadar kemiskinan di Malaysia dan sekiranya BR1M dan bayaran kebajikan yang lain tidak dilaksanakan kadar kemiskinan di dalam Malaysia akan lebih tinggi daripada yang dicatatkan sekarang.


Selain daripada World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) juga mengiktiraf BR1M sebagai program jaringan keselamatan sosial yang memberi manfaat kepada golongan yang terdedah kepada kemiskinan. [7]


Bukan sahaja membantu meringankan beban golongan yang memerlukan, BR1M juga merancakkan ekonomi negara dengan meningkatkan pertumbuhan penggunaan swasta (private consumption growth) yang mewakili lebih separuh saiz ekonomi/output negara menurut laporan yang dikeluarkan Bank Negara [8]:



Saya tidak faham kenapa Tun berkata bahawa pada zaman beliau sebagai PM, beliau tidak memberi wang tunai kerana beliau membina sistem jalan raya yang baik, peruntukan kepada sekolah yang mencukupi, pemberian biasiswa dan sebagainya seolah-olah sepanjang pentadbiran Najib, beliau tidak membina jalan, tidak memberi peruntukan yang mencukupi kepada sekolah dan tidak memberi biasiswa kepada pelajar.



Mengikut statistik jalan persekutuan dan negeri, sejak 2009, panjang jalan raya di Malaysia bertambah dari 16,932.66KM kepada 19,822KM bagi jalan persekutuan dan 106,075KM kepada 199,015KM bagi jalan negeri.  [9] [10]

Statistik Jalan Persekutuan 2009

Statistik Jalan Persekutuan 2015

Tahun lepas sahaja kerajaan membelanjakan RM40.5 billion bagi pendidikan dan jumlah ini meningkat daripada tahun-tahun sebelumnya:


Perbelanjaan Kerajaan Persekutuan Untuk Pendidikan, 2015

Kos semasa bagi setiap murid setahun yang ditanggung kerajaan juga tertera di atas.

Tun Mahathir sediakan perbelanjaan yang mencukupi untuk rakyat, begitu juga Najib Razak.

Malah kerajaan sekarang juga menyediakan bantuan awal persekolahan berjumlah RM100 untuk ibu-bapa pelajar yang mempunyai pendapatan kurang RM3,000 sebulan [11]: 



Saya juga tidak lupa bagaimana semasa di sekolah rendah dua puluh tahun yang dulu, ibu bapa saya perlu membayar yuran sekolah di awal sesi persekolahan.

Pada tahun 2012 kerajaan memansuhkan sepenuhnya yuran persekolahan yang dikutip kementerian (tidak termasuk yuran PIBG) seperti diumumkan di dalam Bajet 2012. [12]


Ini juga salah satu langkah kerajaan untuk mengurangkan beban ibu-bapa pelajar-pelajar yang tidak ada pada zaman Tun.

Soal pemotongan peruntukan kepada universiti-universiti awam dan pengurangan pemberian biasiswa juga tidak sepatutnya dijadikan isu kerana Tun sepatutnya faham pendapatan kerajaan terhad selepas harga minyak jatuh yang menyebabkan kerajaan kehilangan berpuluh billion hasil petroleum.

Walaupun GST berjaya menampung kekurangan hasil petroleum tersebut, tetapi ianya hanya sebahagian sahaja.

Tun tidak wajar lupa bagaimana ketika Malaysia dilanda krisis ekonomi, kerajaan di bawah pimpinan Tun juga memotong bajet universiti awam dan peruntukan biasiswa [13] [14]:






Lupakah Tun bagaimana 2,000 pelajar yang mendapat biasiswa ke luar negara dipanggil balik serta merta dan beribu-ribu lagi pelajar yang terpaksa membatalkan hasrat untuk melanjutkan pelajaran ke luar negara?

Lupakah Tun perbelanjaan universiti awam dibekukan sehingga tiada dana untuk membeli buku-buku baru?

Saya tak tahu di hospital kerajaan mana Tun pergi yang menyuruh pesakit membeli ubat sendiri.

Caj rawatan pesakit luar masih RM1 dan caj rawatan perkhidmatan pakar masih RM5 dan TIADA caj dikenakan untuk ubat-ubatan yang dibekalkan kepada pesakit seperti kenyataan media Ketua Pengarah Kesihatan Malaysia, Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah bulan lepas [15]


Bila agaknya kali terakhir Tun mendapatkan rawatan di hospital kerajaan sehingga Tun menyebarkan berita palsu ubat-ubatan di hospital kerajaan perlu ditanggung sendiri pesakit?

Keterdesakan Tun Mahathir semakin hari semakin jelas sehinggakan beliau sanggup menghina golongan berpendapatan rendah dan menengah sebagai penerima rasuah, mudah termakan umpan, tiada maruah dan sebagainya.

Ada anak Tun Mahathir yang mendapat kontrak berbillion-billion daripada Petronas untuk syarikatnya sendiri, bagaimana boleh beliau faham kehidupan isi rumah berpendapatan kurang RM4,000 sebulan.

Ada anak Tun Mahathir yang berniaga besar-besaran dan hampir bankrap akhirnya dibantu oleh syarikat perkapalan milik Petronas. [16] 



Mana mungkin anak-anak Tun Mahathir pernah merasai pendapatan di bawah RM2,000 selaku individu bujang.

Tak lupa juga anak Tun Mahathir yang mendapat laluan mudah menjadi Timbalan Menteri dan kemudiannya Menteri Besar walaupun kalah pemilihan parti sebelum itu.

Tidak mungkin sama sekali Tun Mahathir faham bagaimana hidup sebagai golongan berpendapatan rendah dan sederhana.

Usaha kerajaan untuk membantu golongan-golongan ini sepatutnya disokong bukannya diperkecilkan dan dihina semata-mata kerakusan untuk menjatuhkan tampuk pimpinan kerajaan sedia ada.

Jika benar BR1M  rasuah, apakah subsidi pukal yang tidak menguntungkan golongan berpendapatan rendah seperti subsidi petrol dan diesel legasi Tun Mahathir berpuluh tahun dahulu?

Jika BR1M itu salah dari segi undang-undang adakah segala jenis bantuan tunai yang diberikan oleh kerajaan negeri Selangor dan Pulau Pinang itu melanggar undang-undang negara?

Rakyat kebanyakan mungkin tidak mampu bermewah menaiki jet peribadi, bercuti ke luar negara seperti Tun sekeluarga, tetapi janganlah menghina mereka yang mendapat bantuan kerajaan sebagai penerima rasuah, senang diumpan dan pemakan dedak.

Sekurang-kurangnya golongan ini dapat merasai hasil kemakmuran dalam bentuk pendapatan tambahan dan bukannya dalam bentuk menara tertinggi dunia, litar lumba, pusat pentadbiran kerajaan baru seperti dulu kala.


RUJUKAN:
[1] "BR1M Umpan Raih Sokongan Rakyat" - Sinar Harian
[2] Laporan Ekonomi Malaysia 2016/2017 - Perbendaharaan
[3] Laporan Tahunan Bank Negara Malaysia 2014
[4] Penyata Kewangan Kerajaan Persekutuan - Jabatan Akauntan Negara
[5] Ucapan Bajet 2016 - Perbendaharaan Negara
[6] Malaysia Economic Monitor: Toward A Middle Class Society -  World Bank
[7] IMF Country Report - Malaysia (March 2015)
[8] Variations in Household Propensity to Consume Across Income Segment - Bank Negara
[9] Statistik Jalan Persekutuan 2009 - Jabatan Kerja Raya
[10] Buletin Perangkaan Sosial 2016 - Jabatan Perangkaan Negara
[11] Ucapan Bajet 2017 - Perbendaharaan Negara
[12] Ucapan Bajet 2012 - Perbendaharaan Negara
[13] Malaysia Cuts Overseas Study - Times Higher Education
[14] The Impact of Economic Crisis on Higher Education in Malaysia
[15] Kenyataan Akhbar KPK 14 November 2016: Pengemaskinian Caj Rawatan Hospital KKM: Hanya Untuk Caj Pesakit Dalam Kelas 1 dan 2
[16] MISC to Pay $220 Million Price For Assets From Mahathir's Son - WSJ

Friday 23 December 2016

TONY PUA SELF-CONFIDENCE CRISIS

Recently the Second Finance Minister Johari Abdul Ghani said that there's no need or cause to panic over the depreciation of Malaysian currency, Ringgit, which I agree completely. [1]

Tony Pua being Tony Pua went berserk over Johari's remark and went on saying that when government's reply to Ringgit plunge is "don't panic", time to panic. [2]


Tony also urged the government to address the "ultimate cause" that has led to Ringgit depreciation, which according to him, is:

Government Should Address Malaysia's Confidence Crisis: The Edge

Tony added that this is the third consecutive year where the Ringgit has become the worst performing currency in Asia:


Before I comment on the issue of "confidence crisis" raised by Tony, allow me to fact-check Tony with regard to his claim that this is the third consecutive year where Ringgit has become the worst performing Asian currency.

Basically Tony said that Ringgit has been the worst perfoming currency in Asia in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

In 2014, Ringgit was not the worst performing currency in Asia, instead it was Japanese Yen.

USDMYR (Blue) vs USDJPY (Purple)

Ringgit depreciated about 6.1% in 2014 against US Dollar, while Yen depreciated more than 13% against US Dollar.

Just to be sure let's check Ringgit movement against Yen in 2014:

Movement of the Ringgit: BNM 2014 Annual Report

In 2014, Ringgit appreciated 6.9% against Yen meaning that Ringgit was not the worst performer among Asian currencies in that particular year.

Last I checked, Japan's still an Asian country, so that's one strike for you Tony.

In 2015, yes, Ringgit is Asia's worst performing currency and it depreciated virtually against all major and regional currencies.

Movement of the Ringgit in 2015: BNM 2015 Annual Report

Ringgit depreciated 18.6% against US Dollar making it the worst performing currency in Asia.

But it's also not a cause for alarm because almost all oil-exporting nation currencies depreciated sharply against US Dollar save for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) [3] like Saudi, UAE, Qatar who pegged their currencies to US Dollar and Brunei who had a monetary union [4] with Singapore.

Selected Oil-Exporting Countries Currencies Performance Against USD in 2015
Oil-exporting countries which floated their currencies like Malaysia was affected negatively by the plunge in crude oil prices throughout the 2015.

Russian Rouble depreciated more than 50% against US Dollar in 2015, Brazilian Real, Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, Norweign Krone depreciated roughly 20% against US Dollar similar to Ringgit.

Was there a confidence crisis in Canada and Norway that caused their currencies to depreciate against US Dollar at similar magnitude as Ringgit in 2015?

What's there to worry about when other oil-producing and exporting nation currencies depreciated too?

They have no 1CDB in Canada, they have no 1NDB in Norway, they have no 1MexDB in Mexico.

How could you attribute Ringgit's depreciation to confidence crisis due to 1MDB only?

What about this year? Is Ringgit Asia's worst performing currency in 2016? Not quite.

Ringgit (Orange), Peso (Blue), Kyats (Pink), Yuan (Green) Performance Aganst USD in 2016: Bloomberg
In 2016, so far, Ringgit depreciated 3.9% against US Dollar, Philippine Peso depreciated 5.6%, Myanmar Burmese Kyats down 4.8% and Chinese Yuan dropped 7.3% againts US dollar respectively.

Philippines, Myanmar and China are all Asian countries right?

So is Ringgit still the worst performing currency in Asia this year Tony?

No and ultimately, Ringgit is not the worst Asian currency in three consecutive years as claimed by Tony.

Fact-check done but I don't want to stop here because I wanted to address why Ringgit hasn't rebounded against US Dollar since crude oil has rebounded this year.

Brent Crude Oil Price Movement in 2016: Bloomberg

Year-to-date, oil has rebounded 47% and yet at the same period, Ringgit depreciated 4% against US Dollar.

Tony thinks that 1MDB was the cause of why Ringgit hasn't followed oil bounce this year but he conveniently overlooked the fact that there are other factors that bogged down the Ringgit.

Other than oil, Ringgit depreciated against US Dollar because of uncertainties resulted from Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.

Investors around the globe expected Federal Reserve to hike its interest rate after 7 years of keeping it near 0%:

Effective Federal Funds Rate: St Louis FRED

After ending the Quantitative Easing (QE) program in October 2014, Fed indicated that they were ready to start tightening its monetary policy gradually by hiking the interest rate.

As a result investors exited emerging markets and started buying assets in US reversing capital flows from emerging markets to developed markets.

In the same period US Dollar strengthened against all other currencies in the world:

Trade Weighted US Dollar Index: St Louis FRED

In the first half of 2016, Ringgit appreciated against US Dollar sharply and at one point became the best performing currency in Asia [5]:


Of course Tony overlooked the fact that Ringgit was Asia's best performing currency earlier this year because it's opposition's habit to highlight only the negative things that are happening in our country.

By June this year, Ringgit started to depreciate again and last month Ringgit erased all gains it recorded in the first half of 2016.

This is because of uncertainties arose after Donald Trump stunned the world by beating Hillary Clinton in the US Presidential election to become the next US President.

Apart from the fact that Trump's campaign was based on racism, sexism and the politics of fear, he also promised to spend [6] heavily on US infrastructure via a fiscal stimulus package worth 1 trillion US Dollar.

The financial markets reacted to the planned stimulus differently across the board.

The stock market particularly financial and industrial stocks rose sharply after Trump's victory while the US government bonds (treasury) took a huge hit as investors reacted to the planned $1 trillion fiscal stimulus. (*When prices of bond fall, the bond yields rise):

The 10-year US treasury yield rose (price dropped) the most in three years as bond investors think that President Trump's infrastructure stimulus will stoke inflation in the US.

Trump has also promised to the Americans that he will pull out from any current and already-planned trade deals or agreements between US and other bloc of countries like the NAFTA, TPP and TTIP because he thought that those trade deals have not benefited and will not benefit the Americans.

He's also accused China of practising currency manipulation by competitively devaluing its currency (Chinese Yuan) to make its exports cheaper and gain a competitive advantage over other countries at the expense of the US exports industry.

He planned to impose a huge import tariffs (duty) on products from China that will make them become more expensive and less competitive.

These protectionism policies are expected to boost US inflation rates faster and will give room for US central bank, the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate.

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, Fed has only hiked the interest rate once in December 2015 by 25bps (+0.25%) because of the persistently low inflation and slack in the job market.

Trump's expansionary fiscal stance and protectionist stance on trade stoke the selloffs in US Treasury as investors expected faster inflation rates that will lead to the Federal Reserve to hike US interest rate in the near future.

That brings us to the selloffs in other currencies across the globe including our own Ringgit.

Other than oil and Fed, Ringgit was also affected by the devaluation of China's currency Yuan by its central bank, People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Malaysia's economy is closely linked to China via trade and investment.

Last year alone we exported RM101 billion worth of goods to China and we imported RM129 billion worth of goods from China.

Malaysia's Total Exports in 2015: MATRADE

Malaysia's Total Imports in 2015: MATRADE

China is Malaysia's second largest export destination and our biggest source of imports.

Economic slowdown in China will lead to slower demand (imports) for foreign products and Malaysia as one of the largest exporters to China will get affected as China's consumption slowing down.

From June 2014 to June 2015, China's stock market increased by 150% as it was inflated and fueled by retail investors who borrowed to invest (on margin).

Shanghai Composite Index: Bloomberg

In June 2015, Shanghai Composite, China's main index benchmark dropped sharply.

China's stock market bubble popped sending shivers acrosss global financial markets inlcuding Malaysia's stock market:

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI: Bloomberg

Ringgit which has already pressured by the plunging crude oil prices, experienced a sell-off as investors fled to safe haven assets such as US Treasury, US Dollar and gold.

Two months after the beginning of stock market turbulence in China and around the world, People's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to devaluate/weaken Yuan as much as 2% against the US Dollar; the largest devaluation since two decades ago. [7]

China Devalues the Yuan by Most in Two Decades: Bloomberg

This move was seen by the global investors as a panic move by Chinese authorities to halt its freefalling stock markets and boost its slowing economy.

Weaker Chinese Yuan, theoretically, would make China's goods cheaper than other countries goods which would make their exports more competitive than others.

Malaysia as an exporter nation was negatively affected as Ringgit depreciated further and breached the 4.00-mark first time since 1998 on the same day Yuan was devalued sharply by PBOC:

USD/MYR breached 4-mark on 12 August 2016: BNM

It wasn't just Ringgit which was adversely affected by PBOC's move, almost all other currencies dropped sharply against US Dollar on the day Yuan was devalued by PBOC:

Reaction of Selected Currencies On Yuan Devaluation: Bloomberg

These are all among the biggest factors that made Ringgit depreciated against the Dollar over the past three years not just because of plunging crude oil prices and certainly not because of 1MDB as Tony alleged.

Was Ringgit not affected by 1MDB at all?

It was but not as much as affected as it was by Fed's monetary policy, Yuan's devaluation and dropping crude oil prices.

If there is a confidence crisis among investors especially foreign investors, we'd see a huge jump in capital outflow due to divestment by foreign investors here.

We shouldn't gauge the portfolio investment flows because portfolio investments are short term investments made in stock and bond markets in which the investors (actually traders) buy and sell securities to make quick gains.

Instead we should observe the direct investment flows which made up of long term direct investments and involved buying more than 10% equity in local companies, setting up factories, creating jobs and such.

These are foreign direct investments in Malaysia since 2009:

Foreign Direct Investments in Malaysia: BNM
"Credit" refers to inflow of funds or amounts received by direct investment enterprise in Malaysia from foreign direct investor and affiliate in the form of equity capital, reinvested earnings, loan transactions, trade credits as well as other capital receipts while "Debit" refers to outflow of funds or amounts paid to foreign direct investor and affiliate from direct investment enterprise in Malaysia due to liquidation of investment, loan transactions, trade credits and other capital payments.

Even when in crisis of confidence as alleged by Tony, Malaysia still recorded higher FDI receipts (credit) year-on-year in 2014 (RM112 billion) and 2015 (RM128 billion) and on track to record another higher FDI inflow this year (*note that 2016 figures above are for January to September only).

Even though FDI outflows increased too, on net basis (credit minus debit), it recorded higher net FDI inflows in the years where Tony said Ringgit was the worst performer in Asia.

The second finance minister was right to say that there's no cause for panic regarding Ringgit depreciation.

Some things like Federal Reserve monetary policy, weaknesses in China's economy, People's Bank of China actions are beyond government of Malaysia's control.

When the fear over Trump's policy expectation dissipates and when investors get more clarity from global economic and financial markets outlook, we'd see Ringgit rebounds from its current levels as we have seen many times before.

Politicians like Tony Pua should stop spreading fears among the Malaysians for the sake of scoring some political points if they have nothing to contribute.

Tony should also read more about global financial markets, what causes emerging market currencies to depreciate, Federal Reserve actions, China's economic and financial markets outlook and such.

Just because you don't have a shred of confidence in our country's economy, it doesn't mean there are none among other Malaysians and foreign investors.